The Console Wars: Where the Big Three Stand

In the nearly fifty year history of video games, it is genuinely surprising to reflect and realize that twenty-three years, basically half,  have been defined by the well-worn clash of Nintendo, Sony, and Xbox and their various consoles. It’s also surprising when you consider that the first quarter-century was much more volatile and marked by rapid change. Within that first rough half, gamers witnessed the birth of the arcades,  the computer and video game industry crash of 1983, the near impenetrable dominance of Nintendo in the mid 80’s to early 90’s, the meteoric rise and infamous fall of Sega, and the slow fireout of once-invincible Atari alongside a host of would-be replacements like the 3DO or gimmicks like the Philips CD-i. They also saw the change that handhelds underwent from home console imitators to pocket-sized innovators, the birth and commercialization of PC gaming, and the death of arcades.

This tumultuous period could be only chalked up to emerging technologies,  like the jump from 2D to 3D,  or even missteps like the Sega Saturn, but it’s arguable that the relative stability of our era is due to the financial clout of multi-industry Sony and Microsoft or Nintendo’s famous squirreling away of funds (Reportedly with $14.7 B in savings) for a rainy day. However both Sony and Microsoft have long since grown their gaming divisions from side projects into major revenue streams to be relied on where a serious decline could impact the company and reopen the tight console market to new players like Amazon or app store giants like Google (Stadia 2 anyone?) and Apple. And despite the golden age that Nintendo has enjoyed under the Switch’s sales, it’s important to remember that not only did the Wii U follow the Wii, but that the N64 and Gamecube followed the far more successful SNES and NES with middling results. So let us examine where the Big 3 console manufacturers stand and speculate what their current plans seem to tell us to see if a shakeup is in the cards starting with Sony. 

To say that there has been some dissatisfaction this generation with Sony’s PS5 and its (somewhat true) lack of exciting or console-defining games first-party or otherwise would be to beat a proverbial horse to its death. And while recent delights like Helldivers 2 or Tekken 8 were well-received, the abysmal failure of Concord’s recent launch, and the successful if smaller in scope triumph of Astro Bot’s, is perhaps the best indicator of where Sony’s ambitions have gone to this generation. Reportedly during the pandemic, Sony began development of no less than 12 live-service projects with half being axed relatively quickly and the remainder which it still intends to bring to market by 2026. This can seem confusing or downright off-brand for a company that has been defined by single-player games and mascots like Crash Bandicoot, Jak and Daxter, or even the web slinger, Spider-Man, himself. But the biggest games in the last five years have increasingly been live-service and multiplayer orientated like Fortnite, Apex Legends, Valorant, Roblox, or even Microsoft’s evergreen Minecraft and now potentially a revamped Call of Duty. With information gleaned from the 2021 FTC proceedings on Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision-Blizzard, we know Sony sees these games as increasingly popular and threatening to topple the traditional pillars of single-player franchises that have often led them to dominate arguably four (possibly three and a half) of the last five console generations. Sony has placed much of its energy into winning the next generation at a steep cost to the current generation it seems, although I believe we will still see exciting titles like Insomniac's Wolverine or even the Last of Us Part III before it ends. This can seem short-sighted and as though Sony is putting the cart before the horse, if Xbox was not gearing up for an early generation reset with a new console launch allegedly planned for 2026.

To say that there has been dissatisfaction with the Xbox Series X and S and even with the last generation would be to point out the oblivious. Other than a few key standouts like the once exclusive Cuphead or fun if middling Starfield, Xbox has wrung sequel after sequel out of the same exhausted franchises (Halo, Forza, Gears of War) while canceling ambitious games like Scalebound (from Platinum Games of Bayonetta and Nier Automata fame) or failing to release games in beloved series like Fable, Banjo-Kazoo, and Project Gotham Racing. However with around fifteen first-party games in development, it’s easier to understand why Xbox is moving with purpose towards a console release in 2026 hoping to repeat the early launch strategy of its most successful console the Xbox 360. It also hopes to bring those games to the now struggling Xbox Series X and S as it blurs traditional console boundaries with cross-generation releases retroactively filling in its library in a bold move that may win the future and the present generation. Additionally Xbox has moved to release several of those new games on rival Sony’s platforms as it gambles that the revenues generated will advance its publishing plans, now with the former third largest publisher under its belt, while it outmaneuvers the competition in other ways. 

In stark contrast to both Sony and Microsoft’s strategies and fortunes, Nintendo has been in a virtual golden age as the Switch climbs the best selling consoles of all time list (Currently #3) with its top first party titles selling around 50 million copies or more (Snagging several spots on the best selling games of all time list). It has doubled down on first-party exclusives (nearly 80 titles give or take thanks to the Wii U) thanks to its consolidation of its handheld development divisions into its home console division while presenting a novel hybrid console that adapts to the user’s preferences. And now it is gearing up to release the successor to the universally praised Switch reportedly with an announcement video at the Tokyo Toy Show this year or early in October. There is a lot riding on this presentation and a launch without any issues given that Nintendo no longer has a separate handheld to blunt the disappointing sales of a new console. Not to mention the wide field of new competitors with the likes of Valve’s Steamdeck, the Rog Ally, and even a rumored handheld streaming-only device from Microsoft that threatens to cut into the pie Nintendo has created for itself this generation. Reports indicate that this was part of the reason that Nintendo delayed the launch of the new console to 2025 as it takes more time with its first party launch exclusives and ramps up unit production to maximize sales. Which makes it possible that we might see a never before seen day one lineup with a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart 9, the new Pokemon ZA as a cross-gen title alongside Metroid Prime 4, and some other surprises in the first year. In summary, that may sound like overkill, but Nintendo cannot afford to botch the launch of its now only flagship product and start over as it did with the Wii U.

If the last twenty-three years have been fairly stable, then it’s clear that the next twenty or so years will not be. Both Microsoft and Nintendo are pursuing novel strategies that adapt gaming to the fast-paced modern lifestyles of its customer base that desire convenience. If Nintendo has leaned deeper into its traditional strengths with its IP’s and handhelds, Microsoft has returned to its core as a software company first that disregards or downplays platforms in favor of universal utility and accessibility. Sony meanwhile has stayed the course while attempting to modernize its first-party holdings. But with the steady-stream of 3rd party exclusives it has always relied on taking longer to come to market, Sony is in the most precarious position since the PS3 generation as its future-forward planning could backfire and hand its competition a major advantage in sales as they move to launch new hardware before it.